Hot Item of the Week- (Reluctantly) Titanium

We were initially hesitant to post a buy order on titanium for several reasons. First of all, we hate to be obvious. As many of our readers e-mailed and commented, the Titanium market is seeing enormous inflationary price movement based on the coming changes in patch 3.2 that will allow Jewelcrafters to prospect Titanium Ore for raw epic Gems. Further, there is the issue of mass speculation and the effect this sort of buying can have on the market.

Price Movements

It is certainly no secret amongst the WoW community that the price of Titanium Ore is on the rise as the patch 3.2 changes have been widely reported on. The result, at this point, is a significant price spike in the prices of not just Titanium Ore, but the related bars, Titansteel Bars, and even (to a somewhat lesser degree) many of the items crafted from Titansteel. Since we started specifically tracking the three metal versions of Titanium early last week each has shown a significant rise in price on every server we checked. Predictably, the increase in the prices of the ore was highest while prices of bars and Titansteel bars showed respectively more modest increases. These rises in related items are most likely driven by a smaller supply pool of raw ore as both literal and figurative prospectors snatch up ore at the best prices they can find. This theory seems to fit the varying level of price increases and is further reinforced by the more modest price gains found in items crafted from Titansteel.

Opportunities

As we mentioned, Titanium Ore and related metals have already increased significantly in price and had done so by the time we entered the market. We were thus very hesitant to invest further as we’re not big fans of buying high. Nevertheless, invest we did rationalizing by saying it was only for testing purposes. The results, however, were surprising. Rather than finding that the already inflated prices were at a peak we found that there was more room for price increase. Every day for the past week we have bought the lowest priced ore, bars and Titansteel and repriced them at higher prices with the result that every auction sold. Thus, we conclude that prices are still on the rise and have not yet peaked. Now, or very soon, would be the time to sell Titanium bars or Titansteel bars and goods that you may have stashed in inventory. We hesitate to sell the ore at this point, however, as we foresee a massive increase in the days immediately following the release of the patch. It may be best to ride that wave and cash in then in terms of the ore.

A Word of Caution

We mentioned initially that we were reluctant to feature Titanium (in any form) as it is so popular at present. The other reason for our reluctance is that we have some experience in presuming an item would increase in price post-patch only to find that the best opportunities to sell were actually while everyone was stocking up in anticipation prior to the actual release of the patch. We caution that we may be seeing more of the same here. If the vast majority of players are stocking up on titanium goods now it is certainly possible that prices will stabilize upon the release of patch 3.2 and drop soon after. That said, the difference in this case is the fact that this ore now has a greater use in the form of prospecting that it didn’t have prior to patch 3.2 so the price increase, at least over historical levels, should have some relative permanence and durability. All this is to say that prices of titanium ore, and thus the related metals, will be higher than what we were accustomed to a few weeks prior although they may drop from their highest levels a few days after the patch is released. Ultimately, It will be a long time before we see low prices on titanium related metals again.

Advertisements

9 Comments

Filed under High Profit Items, Hot Item of the Week, WoW Market Commentary

9 responses to “Hot Item of the Week- (Reluctantly) Titanium

  1. Rob

    You would be surprised. I’m closely tracking the Ti situation on my server. Three words: Chinese gold farmer.

    http://gibwow.blogspot.com/2009/06/ti-ore.html

  2. Zachary Pruckowski

    That seems to be the catch. If everyone is working off the same information, everyone is going to do the same “logical” thing. As a result, every JCer is stocking up on Titanium ore, resulting in more than the market will likely be able to handle come patch day.

    The other issue is this: Who’s gonna re-gem previous-tier gear for a slight stat boost when they’re aiming to replace the gear quickly? Given that Argent Coliseum is opening one boss at a time, if the PTR testing shows the first boss or two is easy, raiders won’t have an incentive to re-gem until week 2-3 (when they’re actually blocked), because why re-gem if the boss is easy to down and you might replace the gear?

    Finally, it’s worth pointing out that these gems will be available for Emblems of Heroism. Given that 3.2 is gonna drop after people have been farming Ulduar for a few months and have a crap-ton of EoC (as well as leftover EoH and EoV) and nowhere to put them, there’s a ceiling on the price of these gems.

  3. Rob

    I also heard that they were purchasable for 10k honor. I can’t seem to verify that. So, yeah I think the rares are not going to go over say 200g. I’m hording Ti for my own purposes, for the dust and for epic gems which eventually i’ll get patterns for. My guess is that as soon as the patch hits there is going to be a ton of gems and not much market, but eventually things will stabilize. Hardly anyone will have cut gems though, so this maybe the way to make profit in 3.2.

  4. I agree with the reluctance. It’s sure that the titanium stuff will be above the price it had before the patch news.

    What’s unsure is if it will be higher than today. The people are buying and by driving the prices higher, make others panic and buy more.

    My tip: buy shortly after the patch when the stockpilers start undercutting each other.

  5. Zamboni

    Many JCs who are stockpiling Titanium are buying it for the dust, not just for gems. The big money isn’t going to be from raw gems, but from the markup on cut gems, which means they need recipes. The JC-stockpiled Ore isn’t coming back – it will be turned into dust regardless of what happens to prices. Even if they only break even after prospecting the ore and selling the gems, it’s still an incredible bargain if it means getting extra recipes for free (and on patch day instead of weeks later).

    I invested heavily into both Titanium Ore and Bars from the beginning, anticipating that the hoarding was going to affect the supply of Bars long before patch day. Titanium Bars have since jumped from 7g to 35g, and I’ve made far more from reselling Bars than I’ve spent stockpiling Ore. Speculating on what prices will be in the future is all fine and dandy, but there’s a lot of gold to be made *now*.

    I anticipate the raw gem prices taking a serious dive on the first couple of days the Titanium hoard is prospected and those gems are added to those purchased with honor and badges. A price crash could be a major buying opportunity for those willing to stock up and ride it out until the market stabilizes.

  6. Pingback: The Secondary Market of Titanium « WoWenomics

  7. vazhkatsi

    I’ve been thinking on the new dungeon in 3.2, and the fact that the regular version drops epics. as long as those are disenchantable, and i see no reason why they wouldn’t be, it would provide a fast easy way to farm large amounts of abyss crystals. i can’t be the only one thinking this, so i’d expect abyss supply to rise, and prices drop, probably significantly. so if you’re stockpiling them, i’d suggest liquidating soon.

  8. Pingback: The Profit Potential of Powder « WoWenomics

  9. Pingback: Titanium Dropping in Price « WoWenomics

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s