As widely reported and recently confirmed on the PTRs, Arctic Fur will be tradable for 10 Heavy Borean Leather from a vendor in the professions region of Dalaran. This change will have several economic effects, the most significant of which will be the normalization in price of Arctic Fur with 10 Borean Leather.
Farming Arctic Fur, as most skinners know, can be a frustrating experience for the profit-minded WoW trader. A quick search of the item on the WoW official forums shows that the vast majority of posts related to Arctic Fur are complaints on abysmal drop rates. Blizzard has responded to the wall of skinning QQ by implementing a change that will allow a conversion of other, lower level, leatherworking profession items into the harder to attain Fur. This type of change is not entirely unprecedented in the game, the most recent example of which would be the implementation of the Abyssal Shatter ability for Enchanters. Unlike that ability however, the Arctic Fur conversion process will be useable by anyone, not just players that require the item for his or her professional crafting uses. This means that any enterprising and astute trader will be able to profit from any amount of price disparity by simply keeping a close watch on when the price of Arctic Fur rises significantly above that of 10 Borean Leather. Assuming there is no limited restock or cooldown of some sort (which, at present on the PTRs, there isn’t) it will be easy to rig the market to produce this profitable result. The vendor trade profit potential will be short lived, however, as eventually even casual traders will catch on to the change and the markets will stabilize.
On the larger scale, we wonder if this profession item trading ability is a sign of things to come in WoW. Blizzard mentioned at Blizzcon this year that they were going to make rare reagents available through guild membership so, it would appear anyway, that they are moving away from players struggling with attaining these types of items for crafting purposes. This will ultimately completely redefine these key trading markets and we can’t help but wonder what the long term economic effects will be. If the intent was to make the more rare crafting items easier to attain, why not simply increase the drop rate? The purpose of changes similar to this one must be that Blizzard is trying to redefine these markets.
When it is all said and done, it would be reasonable to expect that the longer term results of this change are going to be a constant equalization between the prices is of equivalent amounts of Borean Leather (in all of its forms) and Arctic Fur. If this should prove to be the case, expect to see a sharp rise in the price of Borean Leather and a modest decrease in the going rate of Arctic Fur in the wake of patch 3.3. There may be some opportunity for procuring inexpensive Borean Leather now, before this change is widely known, for either reposting when the price spikes or conversion to Arctic Fur when the change first hits and the prices are still high.
Have you ever intended to bid on an item only to realize that because there was already a bid on that item you ended up bidding higher than you wanted to?
By looking at the box at the center of the bottom of the Auction House screen you can see and adjust the amount you are about to bid on an item. It’s a simple tool and easily located but even veteran traders quite often overlook it. Before you bid on anything, take a look at this box and determine if you how much you are about to bid. A bid amount equal to the amount listed on the auctioned item means that you are the first bidder. A bid amount higher than what’s listed on the item means that you are upping another player’s bid. Use this knowledge to your strategic advantage.
Also, if you ever find yourself in a bidding war over the same item with another player -you know, those situations where you bid on something and are outbid seconds later so you bid again and the same thing happens over and over- try bidding a few times using the default amount listed then, after you’ve got your competitor in a routine, bid your maximum amount by typing it into the box directly. The frequent result is that the competitor, having fallen into a groove, will immediately hit the bid button without looking at the amount and get caught paying much more than expected. You might even try bidding over the maximum amount you want to pay in the hopes that your competitor blindly overbids to an extreme. You may not win the bidding battle for the item this time, but by using this trick you can certainly make it a much more costly victory for the competition.
Finally, one other trick with bidding is to always bear in mind that it costs more gold to cancel auctions with bids on them. If you find yourself in a situation where you’re competing with an auction house camper on your sales, and this person places low bids but regular or high buy out amounts, consider bidding the lowest possible amount and making it more painful for the competition to cancel their auctions and repost to undercut you.
Use the bidding feature to your advantage. It may not be the silver bullet of WoW riches but it is certainly a nice weapon to have in your arsenal of Auction House PVP.
We’ve previously examined the effect that the arrival of the Darkmoon Faire has on other markets but with it being back in town at present it is perhaps time to share another small yet profitable tip. As we’ve already mentioned, there is profit to be made by timing your purchases and sales around the price spikes created by the faire, but there is also a significant amount of gold to be made by simply turning in completed decks during the faire and then selling the resulting BoE trinkets at the midway point.
The fact that the higher-end decks can only be turned in for one week a month creates an artificial demand spike for the resulting trinkets during the period between fairs. If you are clever enough to catch the decks (or cards if that’s your thing) at low points in price, you can turn them in yourself, hold on to the trinkets for a couple of weeks and then sell the trinkets for a hefty profit when most of the competition is back to selling decks. All it takes is a short ride over to the fair’s location that month. By simply making a play on the patience of other players (or, more specifically, the lack thereof) you can generate a few hundred extra gold every month.
The best part of this strategy is that, not only can you make more gold from the decks, but you also get to keep the faction reputation gain for yourself which is helpful if you’re edging towards insanity.
…Well, slightly anyway. We’re seeing Crusader Orbs rising in price slightly across six auctions houses per faction side that we tested. That is to say that 12 out of 12 tested auction houses are showing increased prices as compared to our last assessment 10 days ago. We speculate that this rise in price is for the very reasons we initially predicted such movement, but we also do not believe that the orbs will return to their earlier levels of value (in the 3,000+ Gold range) ever. The orbs dipped on some servers to below 1,000 Gold for a few weeks and testing of these same servers showed that they are now going for 1,100 or more. Eventually, prices will hit a ceiling and come back down but, for now, they seem to be continuing to rise. With a deposit amount of only 36 Silver for a 48-hour auction, it may now be time to put up your Crusader Orbs for sale at prices slightly above current market value with long-term auction durations.
About a week ago an article was published on WoW.com advising readers of the financial benefits of farming a certain highly profitable fish. While we’ve also previously advised that WoW traders focus on fishing and cooking Dragonfin, we do not have quite the same community reach as WoW.com.
The result over the past week has been, as you might have predicted, a sharp drop in the going rate of uncooked Dragonfin Angelfish. Generally, the price of raw Dragonfin stays higher than the prices of equivalent Northrend fish not only because the demand for the cooked fish is so high but also because the supply is diminished by not being connected at all to any fishing daily quests. The currently lower price, however, presents a fantastic opportunity for in-game chefs to turn a quick gold by simply purchasing the price-depressed fish, cooking and selling at a hefty mark-up. The key to this, and really any high-end cooking-for-profit, strategy is in attaining the Northern Spices inexpensively. One idea is to purchase Dragonfin Angelfish for less than 50 gold, the spices for less than one gold and then sell the stacks of cooked product for 100 gold or more. This nets a nice 30 gold per stack minimum profit and the time investment is minimal because we know you’ve already got your Chef’s Hat right?
Be sure to consider both types of cooked Dragonfin for the most profitable variety. Both Dragonfin Filet and Blackened Dragonfin can sell profitably but our experience is that there is usually higher demand for the Filet variety. The profitability of the Blackened fish, however, was increased with the patch 3.2 changes that reduced the amount of raw fish required to cook the item.
The irony to this easy tip is that the author of the post over at WoW.com quite correctly advises readers not to sell the fish when the market is flooded and to examine the entire value chain to determine whether it is best to sell the raw or cooked fish. Naturally, these key points seem to be lost on the community and the result has been a mass influx of uncooked Dragonfin onto the market. If, indeed, the uptick in raw fish on the market is attributable to this article, it can also be expected that the over supply period will end and prices will return to normal levels as the more casual players exit the market. In the mean time, we’re scooping up all the cheap fish we can find.
A small fix was applied to the AH interface sometime during the past two weeks. The fix addresses the interface issue we described in a previous post, wherein new searches of the AH would retain the page index of previous searches thereby rendering occasionally inaccurate search results. This was only prevalent in the unmodified auction house and has since been fixed. New searches now revert to the first indexed page of AH searches.
You can, however, still dance your way to free honor at the blacksmith in Arathi Basin.
The Enchanting ability, Abyssal Shatter, was hotfixed onto EU servers this morning. This ability allows for conversion of Abyss Crystals into either Infinite Dust or Greater Cosmic Essence. If the spell results are left unchanged, there will be significant economic impact.
Shattering crystals requires an enchanting skill of 445 and can reportedly yield as many as 18 dusts or 4 essences.
Prices are already starting to move on EU servers to reflect the above stated changes. Players on US servers have somewhat of an advantage here in that, since they did not yet receive the hotfix, they have an early warning of the impending change. US early adapters will be able to play a bit of insider trading and move the markets before they move themselves.
It is worth noting that there will also be some trickle down consequences on related enchantment materials markets such as enchanted vellums and other items that require these materials but this change may require more time to take effect.
Over the long haul, it would be our expectation that the prices of Infinite Dust, Greater Cosmic Essence and Abyss Crystals will all normalize such that the price of 1 Abyss Crystal, 15-18 Infinite Dust, and 2-3 Greater Cosmic Essence all equal about the same amount. Until this happens, however, there will be ample opportunity to take advantage of price disparity.