Tag Archives: Patch 3.1

Liquidating Titansteel

After our post analyzing the state of the post-3.1 economy we had a few readers ask us about Titansteel Bars and, more specifically, how to get rid of them. Obviously, dumping more than 2 or 3 in the market at once will send prices downwards but, as we pointed out in our the post, prices are already on a steady decline so holding on to the bars seems equally fruitless. What should we do then, if the goal is to get out of the Titansteel Bar market as painlessly as possible?

Understand Fair Value

Fair value, as opposed to nominal value, is the worth of a commodity or good based on the price(s) of components required to make that item at a specific time. That is, fair value is the worth of an item at the time of the potential trade. This price may (and probably will) differ from the price at which the good was initially bought or sold. One example might be a currency. The dollar bill may say it is worth one dollar as printed across the front of it. That is the nominal, or par, value. Trading that dollar for a foreign currency, however, will reveal that the value of the theoretical dollar fluctuates based on market pressures including but not limited to inflation/deflation, supply and demand and the strength of other currencies.

Though it sounds simple, many WoW players that we run into have a very difficult time understanding this concept. The thing that people seem to get caught up on is thinking that an item is worth what they paid for it. This is, in fact, false. The worth of an item at any given time is the amount that it is selling for. Moreover, the fair value of an item is the amount of the price of the components of that item. While emotionally the item may seem like it is worth more or less, we don’t trade on emotion, we trade on fact.

As applies to Titansteel Bars, add up the current market prices of the materials required to craft the bar and you’ll arrive at the fair value of the bar. So long as the bars themselves are selling for more than the cost of materials, it makes sense to craft them and sell them. If the bars are selling for less than the materials, then don’t craft them. The only factor at play is that of the materialopportunity cost– how else you might be more profitably using those materials if you hadn’t used them to craft a Titansteel Bar. There is, in this case, no opportunity cost associated with your time spent since the time investment in using the smelting skill is minimal.

In our post-3.1 assessment when we tested Titansteel Bars on four servers on both Horde and Alliance sides, in every instance the going rate of the bars was always greater than the going rate of the sum of the materials. Thus, our finding was that the bars still have crafting-for-sale value.

But What if You Already Have Titansteel Bars Stockpiled?

If you’ve still got the bars stockpiled then you’ve got a decision to make. If you assume the bars are going to go back up in price than you can hold on to them and hope. Otherwise, it is time to start strategically selling them off. If you only have a few this is as straightforward as listing them in the AH. However, in quantities of 10 or more you have to start thinking about unwinding the trade (wherein you make counter-trades to offset potential losses from your initial trade) and to do this we have to get creative…

Sell the Cool Down for Bars you Already Have

The best, most profitable way we’ve found to offset is to ‘sell’ your ‘Titansteel cool down’. Offer in /trade chat- or wait for one of the many messages the pop up requesting this cool down- to sell your daily cool down. Now, you’re not really going to sell them a cool down technically because you’re actually going to simply give them one (or hopefully more) of your bars for the materials required to craft it. Further, you’re going to charge them a premium for use of your ‘cool down’. The charge for use of the Titansteel cool down is usually between 10 and 15 gold. If you can do this with all of the bars you want to get rid of, instead of selling them outright on the market, you’ll not only recoup all of the materials that you used up in initially crafting the bars but you’ll make a small profit as well. The only real cost to you is now the opportunity cost of not having used those bars, or the materials, in another more profitable way during the time you were stockpiling. Either way, there’s no actual monetary loss if you liquidate in this fashion.

We are aware that this is a complex trade. Complex trades are not for everyone. Most people want to simply buy low and sell high. However, as with all aspects of finance you are sometimes thrown a curveball. The most successful traders are not those that make only good bets (those people are called either flat out liars or scam artists). No, the most successful traders are those that know how to handle the curveballs as they come.

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Analysis of the Post-3.1 Economy

We’ve now had two weeks to assess the impact of patch 3.1 on the WoW economy. The general consensus has been that, while there were a few areas of opportunity, the Northrend economy overall is in a state of continued decline. We are certainly no fans of assumption here at WoWenomics so we chose a few items, specifically those items we based our own pre-patch predictions upon, to track with standard financial analytics. It is this analysis we share with you now.

When looking at the statistics below you may notice that there are three weeks of listed tests. The purpose of conducing three weeks of testing was to establish a baseline in the week prior to the release of the patch. Bear in mind that the day the patch was released to the (US) public was Tuesday, April 14th. The data listed below reflects the week of prices leading up to this date and the two-week period following.

Items we Predicted Would Rise in Value

Borean Man O’ War

3 week high: 40.84 on Sunday, April 19, 2009
3 week low: 18.51 on Monday, April 27, 2009
3 week average price: 23.22

after-3-1_1-borean-man-o-war

Of all the items we predicted an increase in price for, Borean Man O’ War saw the biggest increase in value in terms of percentage increase. This was particularly true if you invested when we initially recommended a buy on this item.

Eternal Earth

3 week high: 7.16 on Saturday, April 25, 2009
3 week low: 4.68 on Wednesday, April 8, 2009
3 week average price: 5.53

after-3-1_1-eternal-earth2

While we initially recommended investing in this item prior to 3.1 we amended our recommendation based on data that was released shortly before the patch was released. Yet, Eternal Earth still managed to increase in value over our testing period. Not a huge increase mind you, but an increase nonetheless. Interestingly, all three of the eternals we tested showed a spike in value on all servers in the days immediately following the release of the patch.

Eternal Fire

3 week high: 28.64 on Wednesday, April 16, 2009
3 week low: 18.97 on Wednesday, April 8, 2009
3 week average price: 21.95

after-3-1_1-eternal-fire

Prices for Eternal Fire have remained mostly stable showing only a modest increase over the three-week examination period.

Eternal Shadow

3 week high: 6.89 on Thursday, April 16, 2009
3 week low: 3.94 on Wednesday, April 8, 2009
3 week average price: 5.19

after-3-1_1-eternal-shadow

Interestingly, all tracked eternals showed their lowest prices on the same date. As the price increased from both the date of our prediction and the week prior to the patch date, we consider this prediction a success.

Gems

Initially gems did not show much promise for profit following 3.1. Recently however, the gem market seems to be showing promise. This reflects the fact that players are now attaining more new gear through both Ulduar and Arena Season 6.

Glyphs

The profits to be made in the initial days following the release of 3.1 were meaningful and well documented. Our resident inscription expert remarks only that “things have cooled” significantly since then.

High-end Cloth- Moonshroud

3 week high: 96.45 on Wednesday, April 8, 2009
3 week low: 81.82 on Tuesday, April 28, 2009
3 week average price: 88.97

after-3-1_1-moonshroud1

We chose to track Moonshroud for several reasons; the most prevalent being that we feel it has the highest potential for increase. That said, the price of Moonshroud has thus far not increased outside of specific price spikes described in our summary below. Further, the decline in price is representative of the decline of the other two types of high-end tailoring cloth. In fact, were you to lay the charts for all three cloth types over one another you’d find that they decline at an almost impossible to differentiate rate although the price points are different.

Icy Dragonscale

We chose not to track Icy Dragonscale statistically due to the fact that it experienced a very modest increase in price. In fact, the only remarkable thing about this leatherworking item, in our opinion, is just how unremarkable the price changes were. The prices of the dragonscales have remained at almost the exact same levels for the past three weeks indicating that, perhaps, the market had ‘bottomed out’ previously and this item has achieved some level of price stability.

Mana Regeneration Items

We did not track a specific item to represent mana regeneration as we feel there are simply too many options available to the player to enhance mana regeneration. We do note, however, that we’ve seen a modest increase in the going rate of +MP5 food and gems.

Popular Enchantments and Enchanting Materials

As we noted recently, we’re doing a brisk and healthy business in already-enchanted vellums. Beyond that, we are seeing server price spikes in specific enchanting materials but nothing consistent. If you’re in the enchanting mats business you’ll have to frequently check the AH so as to determine when best to buy and sell.

Relic of Ulduar

These reputation turn-in items have not yet shown a significant increase in price. They have performed instead in similar manner as the Icy Dragonscale listed above. The only interesting thing about these relics is that it is the single item that seems to have found a consistent price that is very close to being the same on all servers (the Icy Dragonscale, by contrast, is consistently in the same price range day after day but that price point varies from server to server). The Relic of Ulduar price is about 2 gold per item across every server tested. Prices for the past three weeks have varied by less than 5 silver from this standard on any given day and, remarkably, this remains the same price level whether the items are sold in stacks or as singles.

Titansteel Bars

3 week high: 102.39 on Tuesday, April 7, 2009
3 week low: 77.82 on Tuesday, April 28, 2009
3 week average price: 92.66

after-3-1_1-titansteel-bar2

Titansteel Bars have been the biggest loser so far in our pre-3.1 assessment. Prices have continued downwards in steady decline for the past three weeks outside of occasional price spikes unique to each server.

WoTLK Flasks

Flask prices have not been specifically tracked as they are a different beast entirely. The two-for-one flask split further complicated the issue. That said, we made a huge amount of gold off of flasks with the release of patch 3.1 and will, perhaps, explore the potential for flasks in a future post. Suffice it to say, for now anyway, that flasks are one of the best items to apply the bid/ask strategy to as it can prove very profitable.

WoTLK Herbs

There was no significant increase in herb prices outside of the occasional herb spike. We theorize that the majority of the scribes and alchemists intending to profit from patch 3.1 bought their herbs earlier rather than later. Herb prices have remained, for the most part, consistent throughout the patch.

Items we Predicted Would Fall in Value

BoE Valor Bracers

The decline in price that we predicted for these bracers is difficult to quantify as there is no simple way to track all the various bracers available and the items are typically sold ad-hoc rather than pre-bought and resold on the AH. Anecdotal evidence, however, supports our initial prediction for decline in that the messages observed in /trade chat by all WoWenomics team members clearly shows the asking price for the bracers to be dropping.

Dragonfin Angelfish

3 week high: 60.81 on Friday, April 17, 2009
3 week low: 44.16 on Sunday, April 26, 2009
3 week average price: 53.82

after-3-1_1-dragonfin-angelfish

This item is in slight decline although it is not for the reasons listed in our initial assessment. Rather, the decline here is caused by over fishing. We’ve provided a more in-depth analysis of the post-3.1 fish market here.

Frozen Orbs

3 week high: 92.75 on Sunday, April 12, 2009
3 week low: 70.16 on Sunday, April 26, 2009
3 week average price: 88.23

after-3-1_1-frozen-orb

Frozen Orbs continue to decline in value although it is difficult to differentiate whether this is due to the deflationary effect or because of the reasons mentioned in our initial hypothesis.

Mycah’s Botanical Bag

3 week high: 284.77 on Friday, April 10, 2009
3 week low: 159.18 on Monday, April 27, 2009
3 week average price: 225.16

after-3-1_1-mycahs-botanical-bag

This item has declined significantly since the release of patch 3.1. There is a steep drop in price a few days after the release that we attribute to the introduction of the new and improved herbing bag to the general WoW market.

In Summary

It should be said right off the bat that it is much easier to predict a decline in the price of an item in WoW than it is to predict a gain in value. This is mostly due to the previously established deflationary effect occurring within the overall game economy. Unfortunately you can’t short WoW items. So, while we did end up being entirely accurate in our predictions for declining value, this alone is not much to be proud of.

As far as our predictions for price increases go, we still reason that some of these increases may still occur as the new crafting patterns drop from Ulduar but, the fact is, the demand spike for materials will be small and short-lived. We’ve already seen examples of this on all of our test servers actually. Situations occurred on all four servers wherein the prices of a certain item like Ebonweave spiked significantly in a single test but prices were almost always normalized by the next test approximately12 hours later. These price spikes were not shown in the results above because they occurred at different times for each server and were thus normalized when combined with the statistics of other servers. What this does tell us, however, is that there is still opportunity for an individual to profit by timing their sales of specific high-end items with the spikes that occur on their own servers. Whether or not you’re interested or capable of watching your server’s economy that closely is, of course, a different story. We do advise that you check frequently, or otherwise liquidate strategically. We do not advise holding items for the long term as that strategy is counterintuitive to the overall WoWenomics game.

We will be continuing our testing and tracking of the prices of the above listed items (and a few others) over the next few weeks as we continue our analysis. If there is enough interest in these types of posts, we’ll put something together and share our results with you.

A Few Notes on Our Testing Methods

It should be noted that all of the listed prices are in the ‘Fair Price’ format, a price measurement scheme that is explained on our Terms page in detail. The listed value of items is the fair price of the items as listed in the Auction houses of four servers. The prices that we show are the average of the listed prices on all four servers. Prices were measured at two points during the day and on both horde and alliance sides. Thus, the final listed ‘Fair Price’ that we tracked and shared is the average of both day and night prices over four servers on both the horde and alliance sides. Prices were measured at the same time daily on each server for the sake of consistency. A fifth server was also tested but not factored into the above listed prices as a control test for our results.

On the day that patch 3.1 was released to US servers, April 14th, data was not recorded due to server stability issues. Therefore, the data listed for April 14th is an average of the day prior and following day’s data. Similarly, on Tuesdays following the patch, servers were unavailable for AM testing times so only evening data is listed. We don’t feel either of these averaged scores significantly affected the outcome of our tests and only mention it now in the interests of full disclosure and transparency.

On a personal note I’d like to send a big thanks out to the WoWenomics team members for measuring and recording their data and returning it in a clear and timely fashion.

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The Loot Council- Was Patch 3.1 Good or Bad For the Economy?

The Loot Council is regular column highlighting interesting and informative posts from around the WoW finance blogosphere.

There’s been a lot of negativity this week in the world of WoW finance. Many of our peers are talking about how the market after 3.1 did not perform as expected and are now revising their predictions and talking about losses on stockpiled materials.

Tobold kicked things off by writing about the effects of economic speculation on prices. He makes some excellent points and the discussion continues in the comments.

Our friends at Just My Two Copper point out that the big increases in price that were expected are simply not going to happen this time around.

We like the approach over at Warcraft Econ, where the talk about adapting to the situation creatively. They were also one of the earliest to note that the post-3.1 market is not behaving as expected.

Dominate Your Server takes this mentality a step further and issues a call for patience. We have to agree and, on that note, think that calling 3.1 predictions a failure after the patch has been out for only one week is jumping the gun a bit.

Not to be overlooked, Gevlon over at the Greedy Goblin has his own strategy for continuing profits. Given his recent achievement of hitting the in-game gold cap, it is certainly advice to be considered. Big congratulations Gevlon!!! Nice work.

Note that the above blogs are not listed in any particular order outside of the way the team brainstormed them. Please let us know if there are any sites that you feel we should feature and we will do so in a future edition of The Loot Council.

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Post-3.1 Quick Observations

Just a few quick observations to assist your weekend trading. The following events are notable to us because we’ve seen these changes on five different servers, which tells us that these are consistent WoWenomic trends, not just single server anomalies.

  • Eternal Life prices have taken off. All servers show at least a 100% increase in going rate from the weeks prior to patch 3.1. If you have a stock of these it may be time to sell although many of us feel the price can still move a bit higher.
  • The continuing decline in the fish business due to massive over-fishing has now spread to the Guru’s Elixir market. We advise, for you turtle hunters, to follow our guidance in our initial post on the matter and target Borean Man O’ War pools or Dragonfin Angelfish pools.
  • The Book of Glyph Mastery continues to lose value as we predicted it would in our feature on the item a week ago. We’ve actually been studying the loss in value quite closely and will share our results after we complete our testing cycle in a few more days.
  • Our flask business is very strong. All five servers show prices above half of what flasks were selling for pre-3.1 (the common expectation was that flasks would be half the old price since they split 2 for 1). In related news, four out of five servers showed an increase in price for Frost Lotus. None showed a significant increase in Northrend herb prices however.
  • Prices for Saronite Ore are at the lowest levels we’ve seen since the launch of WotLK on every server we checked- on both Horde and Alliance sides.
  • Our enchanted vellum business increasingly shows impressive returns. The high-end, end-game enchants are solid winners as are several low-level enchants as twinks fight to stay relevant. Blank vellum prices have, however, gone down significantly but this only helps our enchanting business.
  • We are seeing occasional spikes, at different times on varying servers, in demand for high-end cloth and Titansteel bars. Prices will spike and then return to a lower level as more players try to get in on the action. We assume the price spikes are related to the drops of patterns from Ulduar. We further expect that prices of these materials will continue to spike, and possibly increase overall, as the guilds progress further into the instance.

We’ve got an in-depth post-3.1 analysis coming soon. Be sure to stay tuned to find out exactly how markets have behaved since the release of this patch.

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The Loot Council- Economic Stimulus Edition

The Loot Council is regular column highlighting interesting and informative posts from around the WoW finance blogosphere.

Warcraft Econ has an excellent tip for the PVPers out there. They’ve discovered what they say is an otherwise undocumented new way to spend honor points in patch 3.1- Blue gems can now be bought and sold for honor. Finally, a bailout for those PVPers with their honor points capped! Hurry, because as more and more players discover this trick the gems will fall in value.

The Greedy Goblin talks about Moral Hazard, the social risks inherent in bailing someone out financially. Given the obvious correlation to the current situation in the real world global economy, this ends up sparking an interesting debate amongst his readers so be sure to check out the comments section as well.

Since we’re talking bailouts, Looking for Group made us literally laugh out loud (as they often do) when we read Richard’s strategy for economic stimulus.

WoW Insider’s Insider Trader has a nice roundup of the 3.1 glyph market and the boost it has provided to scribes. The article is both comprehensive and concise and an excellent jump off point for any profit-minded scribe.

Just My Two Copper continues their series on farming mobs for profit. This time with an AoE location suggestion that could prove an effective way to generate gold for AoE DPS classes.

The Pugnacious Priest doesn’t mind sharing but this is ridiculous. All gatherers in WoW are (unfortunately) familiar with this type of behavior but not everyone gets such a good screen cap of the incident. Let this be a lesson to you… Don’t cast your line in another man’s pool!

Note that the above blogs are not listed in any particular order outside of the way the team brainstormed them. Please let us know if there are any sites that you feel we should feature and we will do so in a future edition of The Loot Council.

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6 Tips for Profiting from Fishing In the Wake of 3.1

The prices of Northrend fish over the last few days have dropped dramatically. With prices in the range of 40-60 gold on most servers, the three fish used to make Fish Feast in particular were always a good source of income to the profit-minded WoW angler. With the changes to the fishing profession introduced in patch 3.1 however, things have changed.

Currently, all of the prices of popular fish are deflated. We attribute the price drop to a significant increase in supply with minimal increase in demand. In fact, a quick look at the Warcraft Top List, spread over 7 days, shows just such an increase in looting of high-level fish. The reason that fishing has become so much more attractive to the average WoW player is primarily because Blizzard has made the profession more attractive in the form of new mount drops from fishing, easier fishing (pools more visible and cast time reduced) and the introduction of daily quests with some pretty attractive potential rewards. More players fishing means more supply. And, as we’ve mentioned previously, when supply is increased and demand is not- a drop in price is often the expected result.

At this point it is difficult to determine the correct course of action. The WoWenomics team is split down the middle as to how to proceed for maximum profitability. It should be noted that we are also part of the problem in that every one of us is completing the daily quests and fishing for the new mount, thus further increasing supply on our servers. Half the team thinks the best move is to sell every catch, which insinuates a further belief that the prices of fish will not recover. The other half are bullish on the fish market and are, in fact, buying up the really inexpensive fish put up for sale on the AH by all the ‘casual fishermen’. The belief here is that the market will ultimately recover somewhat as the casuals devote time and interest to other things and supply again drops. So, the best course of action is left for you to decide. At this point the only thing we know for sure is that prices are, in fact, dropping. That said, here are a few other interesting notes about the fish market that we’ve noticed over the past few days:

  1. Of all the available Northrend fish, Dragonfin Angelfish has retained its value best. Prices for this particular type of fish remain strong because our initial 3.1 presumption, that there would be additional recipes that awarded the same benefit as the popular Dragonfin Filet, did not prove true. Thus, if you are going after the turtle mount, you might want to focus your attention on Dragonfin pools. In doing so you not only have the same chance at the mount as you do with other pools, but your profit potential will be much higher than with other areas.
  2. For similar reasons, you might also consider fishing in Deep Sea Monsterbelly Schools although the market for these fish is much more susceptible to a price drop when over supplied due to limited usefulness to WoW chefs. Similarly, fishing for Borean Man O’ War could prove an attractive way to spend your time depending on the prices of Black Jelly on your server.
  3. If you’re not already a cook yourself, you might want to start working on that skill. The best way to continue profiting from fish right now is to sell the cooked (as opposed to raw) fish. If you absolutely can’t stand the thought of spending your WoW time cooking (but you can somehow bring yourself to fish?!?) then consider teaming up with a friend or guildmate that is a cook and maximize your profit.
  4. Another opportunity for profit is with the Fish Feast. Many players didn’t notice the change, but Fish Feast is no longer bind on pickup and can now be sold in the AH or otherwise traded. This change has a secondary benefit of reducing guild and player bank clutter. On a related note, even if you’re not a chef or a fisherman, a responsible raider will carry a few of these in her bags during raid times to share the financial burden with whomever normally supplies the meals during raids.
  5. The secondary market for fish related items could also see some changes. We expect to see an increase in supply for both Pygmy Oil and Pygmy Suckerfish but not necessarily Guru’s Elixir. This only strengthens our initial assessment of this item. We don’t, however, predict a noticeable change in the prices for various lures and Elixir of Water Walking as these items are fairly well supplied on all the servers we checked.
  6. In related news, there may be a slight increase in the price of Northern Spices as patch 3.1 introduced a new way for cooks to spend their awards in addition to the fact that more players are leveling their cooking skill.

As the old Irish saying goes, “May the holes in your net be no larger than the fish in it.” Good luck out there.

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Hot Item of the Week- Book of Glyph Mastery

The Book of Glyph Mastery is something of a ‘perfect storm’ in terms of profit potential: It’s new, it is extremely rare (for now), highly desired and can be found by just about anyone. Put another way, these books are extremely high in demand while being severely limited in quantity. When we see that formula, we can’t help but think ‘opportunity’ and here are a few reasons why you should as well.

About the Book- Demand

Books of Glyph Mastery are how scribes potentially learn one of the 40 new glyph recipes in the game. To be clear, for better or worse, these books are the ONLY way to learn one of the 40 new glyphs. They are ‘random world drops’ according to Blizzard so it is not really possible to specifically farm them.

Just to firmly establish the demand level, it will take weeks (if not months) for all of the new glyphs to show up in your server’s economy. Even when the glyphs do become available, they will be in very low supply. Unless you’re very good friends with the particular scribe that can produce a specific glyph, you can expect to pay a ridiculous amount for it. We do, however, expect that the price of the glyphs will decrease over time as demand falls and supply increases. As it stands now, we’ve seen scribes (on several servers) that possess the new glyphs advertising them for as much as 500 gold each. Note, that price is for a single glyph, not a book.

About the Book- Supply

In a sense, you can compare finding one of these books to winning the lottery. Your chances are extremely slim but if you do get a ‘winning ticket’ you can have almost instant wealth (relative to other items anyway). To continue with the lottery comparison, there’s really nothing you can do to work for the winning ticket. Rather, you will either be lucky and find one or you will not. The item cannot be specifically farmed for. There is (at this time) no data that says any one mob will drop the item more than any other. But, again like the lottery, you’ve ‘got to be in it to win it’ meaning that if you’re only doing a few daily non-mob-killing quests or strictly PVP, your chances of finding one are zero.

Use or Sell?

That’s the question isn’t it? What would you do if someone (let’s call him Bob) told you that you had a winning lottery ticket in your pocket but you don’t know how much for? The prize could be as little as $10 or as much as one million dollars. On the other hand, Bob is willing to pay you $10,000 for your ticket right now. The only way to find out the winning ticket’s actual value is to turn it in to the lottery commission, at which point you must accept the amount of the awarded prize and the deal proposed by Bob is off the table. So what would you do? Take the chance and keep the ticket? Or do you take Bob’s deal and go with the sure thing?

This type of predicament is often referred to as utility theory in economics. There’s also a touch of what’s called ‘ethical dilemma’ to this problem. Now, we are not going to delve into the mathematics of this problem here* but we will tell you that to solve it fully you would need all the variables and, in the case of the Book of Glyph Mastery, you simply don’t have them. There is no way to know the true value of the book because it is worth exactly as much as you can sell it for which is simply too subjective to quantify.

What we can tell you is that there are comments on the forums and other sites where people have described selling this item for as little as 400gold and as much as 5,000 gold. We did a little informal polling of guildies and players in trade chat, asking people how much they’d be willing to pay for one of these books. The answers varied wildly. Some people said 500 gold. The highest offer we received was for 6,000G. The most interesting observation from our little informal test was that, on one server, a bidding war erupted in trade chat with scribes (and presumably profiteers) out bidding each other in the /trade channel. We found this interesting because we consistently and publicly reminded the people in the channel that we don’t actually have the item and this didn’t stop them from bidding. The highest bid was ultimately 9.5k gold. Hardly scientific, but now you know what we know.

So What Would We Do?

Put simply, we’d sell it. We are proponents of selling items when they’re costly and purchasing them when they’re inexpensive. Further, we are actively scanning the auction houses on our servers for anyone silly enough to put one up for sale for a low price (think, under 1,000 gold). For what it’s worth, we asked our resident inscription expert if he would purchase one and how much would he pay for it if so. He gave an immediate ‘yes’, said he’d pay up to 3,000 gold, and then proceeded to further convolute the issue by saying it was only so he could “resell it for more than 5,000 to another scribe.”

The Future of this Item

Sometimes you’ve got to move fast to make money. One thing the entire WoWenomics team agrees on here is that the book will suffer from a diminishing value. The later into the lifecycle of patch 3.1 that you find the item, the more likely it will suffer from MUDflation. This one is not something you want to hold in your bank for just the right moment. Find it and sell it, or find it and use it.

Further, we are believers that Blizzard is, perhaps, a little too responsive to massive walls of player QQ. To wit, check out this response from Blizzard and we’re sure you’ll agree with us that this item may be much easier to find in the near future. If you put any faith in that message, you can further see why we advise to sell them now, even if you’re a scribe yourself. Of course, this also means that now is not the time to purchase the book yourself. Wait a while and see if blizzard buffs the drop rate or otherwise changes the mechanics by which it is attained.

*In case you haven’t already guessed from some of our previous posts, we love economic theory and will discuss it ad-nauseam if left unchecked by our friends, spouses and associates. While we’d love to discuss utility theory, moral dilemma and probability statistics with you, we hardly feel this is the forum to do so. Instead, we invite those of you interested in learning more about these theories to do so with the following resources:

  • The mathematical functions behind risk/reward decision-making, told in the form of whether or not to play the lottery.
  • Wikipedia has some good information regarding expected utility and utility functions.
  • They’ve also got a fairly decent page on moral dilemma.
  • Extensive discussion of economic decision-making (PDF) models as applies to utility theory.
  • A thorough introduction of utility theory as applied to economic decision-making (PDF) and portfolio distribution.
  • And finally, from the lighter side of the discussion, we give you the primary reason we have decided not to discuss these issues more in-depth here at WoWenomics: Because we all know that sometimes 2 equals 1.

Somehow we’re guessing the above list of links will be among the least ‘clicked’ links in the history of our site but we invite you to delve further because, well… we’re nerds.

Update: We have recently released a comprehensive graph charting the going rate of the Book of Glyph Mastery. If you are searching for most recent prices, you might want to check here.

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