Tag Archives: WoW Gold Tip- Epic

Raw Epic Gems on the Rise

Uncut epic gems are showing increases in price on every server we tested. This is occurring even as the prices of many cut epic gems are decreasing in price. The reasons for this pricing anomaly are simple.

Demand is Up

Uncut (or raw) epic gems gain value as demand increases. We are currently seeing a demand increase because many jewelcrafters now each have several learned patterns and are increasingly gaining more. As jewelcrafters learn more patters, and seek to cut more gems, the demand for raw gems increases. Demand for cut gems is also on the rise due to the new Arena Season, new PVP gear and additional PVP content but the cut demand is not increasing as fast as the uncut demand… for now. It is reasonable to expect that cut gem demand will equalize with, or possibly even overcome, uncut gem demand as more players gain new gear and as players develop a coherent strategy as to how they wish to gem their gear with epic cuts. Of course, any increase in cut gem demand will also increase demand for uncut equivalents but the opposite relationship is not necessarily true.

Supply is Down

Again, with the release of new PVP gear, many players are back to spending their honor points on attaining this gear as opposed to purchasing gems for resale. Further, most players are reporting their experiences with prospecting Titanium Ore to be unprofitable and are thus not pursuing this avenue of gem creation either. This leaves a significant dent in the supply of raw epic gems and a market ripe for exploitation by the savvy WoW trader.

Conclusions

If you have excess uncut epic gems keep an eye out for opportunities to sell them at a premium. The servers we tested each showed at least 3 out of 6 possible colors of epic gems to have at least some cut gems that were selling lower than the price of uncut gems. One server showed at least one cut gem in each gem color category to be selling cheaper than their raw counterparts.

The signs of a good selling opportunity include (but are by no means limited to):

  • A very low (perhaps < 5) amount of uncut epics available
  • Multiple cut gems selling for less than their uncut counterparts
  • A sharp rise in prices of a popular cut gem(s)

The market is moving, make sure you are moving accordingly. In put it in PVE terms, don’t stand in the purple AH fire.

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The Profit Potential of Powder

We’ve previously explained our reluctance to write about already hyped up WoWenomic trends but our resident Jewelcrafter has recently weighed in to point out that he is just killin’ it these days with Titanium Powder.

Titanium Powder is the residue remnants of prospecting Titanium Ore. Ten of these powders can be turned in to Tiffany Cartier, the Dalaran Jewelcrafting supplier, for a single Dalaran Jewelcrafter’s Token. These tokens are then used to purchase various items and recipes of value to Jewelcrafters. Most recently, four tokens can be turned in for an epic gem recipe introduced in patch 3.2. The fact that these recipes are still so new to the game and the source material, Titanium Ore, is so high in price, creates an elevated demand for Titanium Powder.

Pricing, Prospecting and Powder

Our associate informs that he is generating huge profits by purchasing any Titanium Ore that falls below his bid level and immediately prospecting it and selling the proceeds. He claims to receive approximately one stack of 10 powder per 30 ore prospected. A rate that is roughly in line with the listed results on WoWhead.com. All told, he claims profits in excess of 150 gold per stack of titanium that he purchases. Provided he can gather or purchase enough ore below his bid level, this allows for an unbelievable amount of income in a very short time so we asked for his specifics. And he provided…

Bid level on stack of 20 Titanium Ore: equal to or under 300 gold
Sell price for single Titanium Powder: approximately 50 gold
Sell price for stack of 10 Titanium Powder: approximately 475 gold

The Big Money

So if he gets a stack of 10 powder (which he sells for 475-500) from approximately 30 Titanium Ore (at a maximum cost of 450 gold) we are left questioning where these ridiculous profits are coming from as this is only 25 to 50 gold. Still nice for zero effort but where’s the big money? That’s when he dropped the bomb… Titanium Powder is only a small part of the prospecting results. In addition to the powder, he regularly gets at least one epic gem per 20 ore prospected as well as 3-4 rare gems and 4-5 uncommon gems. As he’s a Jewelcrafter by trade (and not just an ore destroyer) he also cuts any gems that he has cuts for prior to listing in the AH. He sets his ask level for these items as follows (based on market conditions):

Uncommon gems: 1-5 gold
Rare gems: 5-12 gold (up to 50 for Scarlet Rubies)
Epic gems: 130-160 gold
Cut Epics: 190-380 gold

Let’s take the most modest of all those numbers (price and prospecting results): Assuming only 3 rare gems (and no rubies), 4 uncommon gems and a single epic per stack (not even counting cut epic gems) of titanium ore, all priced at the bottom of the chart above, we’re talking about an additional 148 gold. But wait, that math only accounts for a single stack of Titanium Ore but our previous numbers to reach 10 powder were based on prospecting 30 ore. This brings the total gem proceeds up to 222 gold. That’s 222 gold on top of the already 25-50 he’s bringing in from the powder (since we paid for the ore with our powder in this equation). Hot damn… those are some nice numbers.

Overall Strategy Tips

There are a few tips to making this strategy work for you.

  • We advise only selling the powder in stacks of ten or singles. The ten stacks are the perfect amount for someone just trying to get an additional token quickly and the singles are the perfect increment for players that just need a few more powders for their next token.
  • Don’t flood the AH with the dust or gems. Doing so will only cause the prices to drop faster.
  • Speaking of which, this is a “limited time only” strategy. Eventually the prices of powder and epic gems will deflate or the market will otherwise normalize. Act now if you intend to cash in.
  • Just like a drug (or junk bond) dealer, never get high from your own supply. Be patient and get your own tokens from the daily quest system. Don’t use your own powder for tokens since it sells for so much right now. Later, as prices of powder go down, you can use it in this fashion.
  • Have patience; sometimes the powder or gems won’t sell during a posting cycle. Other times it will all sell out, at any price. People get desperate or greedy but it can be cyclic. Play the long game.
  • Don’t try this on a single stack and expect exactly the same results. Our Jewelcrafting expert actually came up with these numbers based on spreadsheets that he uses to record his results and profits. Yes, he’s *that guy*. Anyway, he prospects hundreds of ore daily and the numbers he shared are based on his averages. In short, YMMV.
  • This strategy assumes an understanding of, and strict adherence to, a solid bid/ask strategy the development of which requires some amount of common sense. We make no assumptions about the common sense level of the average WoW player. Consider this a disclaimer.
  • The prices on your server may differ from those described above but the ratios and relative values are probably similar. Thus, use the above as a guideline but not exact price points. Do some homework and develop your own bid ask levels that work for your unique profit goals.

The Only Downside

Our Jewelcrafter asked me not to post the exact details under threat of incineration. His fear, and reasonably so, is that if this strategy becomes too popular then prices will drop faster and it won’t work any longer. I was actually hesitant to post this because he was pretty clear about his mortal threat to me but then I remembered that he plays a mage so I just LOL’d and posted it anyway. Of course, this assumes he was talking about in-game death. Perhaps I should have clarified…

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The Most Profitable Gems, Enchants and Glyphs

One of the questions we get most often from readers is, “What is the most profitable gem/enchant/glyph?” It is impossible to give a definitive answer to this problem since it depends largely on how cheaply you as an individual can attain the materials and how efficiently (and at what price) you can sell the crafted enhancement. Thus, we don’t even attempt to answer this question since it is impossible to quantify. We can tell you what our enchanter says are his most profitable vellums (Boots- Icewalker, Chest- Super Stats and Cloak- Titanweave) or what our Jewelcrafter says are his best sellers (Runed Scarlet Ruby, Brilliant Autumn’s Glow and Solid Sky Saphire), but again, the variance in how cheaply you can attain the materials and how well these specific enhancements sell on your server (not to mention how much competition you have) is too wide to make a general judgment call for all crafters.

This is to say, that we can’t effectively figure out what will work best for you. Nor, can we suggest what is best to use as an enhancement overall. We can, however, determine what people think is best and is, thus, most popular. In determining what items are most in-demand to the general population, you can then make your own judgment calls as to what you should be selling based on how cheaply you can attain the materials vs. how much competition/how efficiently you can sell the crafted item.

So, how do we determine the most popular item enhancements for the majority of WoW players? To do that, we turn to our friends the armory data miners. There are many sites out there that will run scripts on the armory statistics pages and determine what builds are most popular or what achievements are the ‘hardest’ to get. As a side effect of this type of data collection, many sites also gather data on most popular gear and enchantments to that gear. In examining their data. we can then deduce what enhancements (and crafted gear) players prefer.

Our favorite armory data mining sites (for profitable crafting purposes) are:

Armory Musings
Armory Data Mining
Glyph Chic

Peruse their data and see if you can determine what the most popular crafted items and enhancements are.

A Few Things to be Aware of:

  • All data miners use a type of data collection called sampling. Many data collection and aggregate services (including our own WoWenomics financial reports) use this function to produce reports efficiently. Sampling, in short, allows for the collection of sample data from a larger general population that is then considered representative of the entire sampled population. This depends on many factors to work correctly, not the least of which is identification of a representative frame and a functional sampling method.
  • Data is only as good as it is current. Some of the data you unearth out there may be dated and will not account for recent changes to the game or the addition of new recipes.
  • As we understand it, the way the armory provides enchantment data is not by actually stating the specific enchantment, but rather, by listing the specific enhancement value. Thus, some of the data you find may have to be cross-referenced with a tool such as EpicEnchants.com which will allow you to determine who is actually using what enchantment.
  • One, minor observation: It would seem to us that the most popular across-the-board enhancements are those with statistics that don’t favor any particular class or build. Things that grant benefits such as + all stats or + crit will, perhaps predictably, always be most popular with the general player base. The exceptions are + resilience enhancements which are, of course, only of interest to hardcore PVPers.

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Liquidating Titansteel

After our post analyzing the state of the post-3.1 economy we had a few readers ask us about Titansteel Bars and, more specifically, how to get rid of them. Obviously, dumping more than 2 or 3 in the market at once will send prices downwards but, as we pointed out in our the post, prices are already on a steady decline so holding on to the bars seems equally fruitless. What should we do then, if the goal is to get out of the Titansteel Bar market as painlessly as possible?

Understand Fair Value

Fair value, as opposed to nominal value, is the worth of a commodity or good based on the price(s) of components required to make that item at a specific time. That is, fair value is the worth of an item at the time of the potential trade. This price may (and probably will) differ from the price at which the good was initially bought or sold. One example might be a currency. The dollar bill may say it is worth one dollar as printed across the front of it. That is the nominal, or par, value. Trading that dollar for a foreign currency, however, will reveal that the value of the theoretical dollar fluctuates based on market pressures including but not limited to inflation/deflation, supply and demand and the strength of other currencies.

Though it sounds simple, many WoW players that we run into have a very difficult time understanding this concept. The thing that people seem to get caught up on is thinking that an item is worth what they paid for it. This is, in fact, false. The worth of an item at any given time is the amount that it is selling for. Moreover, the fair value of an item is the amount of the price of the components of that item. While emotionally the item may seem like it is worth more or less, we don’t trade on emotion, we trade on fact.

As applies to Titansteel Bars, add up the current market prices of the materials required to craft the bar and you’ll arrive at the fair value of the bar. So long as the bars themselves are selling for more than the cost of materials, it makes sense to craft them and sell them. If the bars are selling for less than the materials, then don’t craft them. The only factor at play is that of the materialopportunity cost– how else you might be more profitably using those materials if you hadn’t used them to craft a Titansteel Bar. There is, in this case, no opportunity cost associated with your time spent since the time investment in using the smelting skill is minimal.

In our post-3.1 assessment when we tested Titansteel Bars on four servers on both Horde and Alliance sides, in every instance the going rate of the bars was always greater than the going rate of the sum of the materials. Thus, our finding was that the bars still have crafting-for-sale value.

But What if You Already Have Titansteel Bars Stockpiled?

If you’ve still got the bars stockpiled then you’ve got a decision to make. If you assume the bars are going to go back up in price than you can hold on to them and hope. Otherwise, it is time to start strategically selling them off. If you only have a few this is as straightforward as listing them in the AH. However, in quantities of 10 or more you have to start thinking about unwinding the trade (wherein you make counter-trades to offset potential losses from your initial trade) and to do this we have to get creative…

Sell the Cool Down for Bars you Already Have

The best, most profitable way we’ve found to offset is to ‘sell’ your ‘Titansteel cool down’. Offer in /trade chat- or wait for one of the many messages the pop up requesting this cool down- to sell your daily cool down. Now, you’re not really going to sell them a cool down technically because you’re actually going to simply give them one (or hopefully more) of your bars for the materials required to craft it. Further, you’re going to charge them a premium for use of your ‘cool down’. The charge for use of the Titansteel cool down is usually between 10 and 15 gold. If you can do this with all of the bars you want to get rid of, instead of selling them outright on the market, you’ll not only recoup all of the materials that you used up in initially crafting the bars but you’ll make a small profit as well. The only real cost to you is now the opportunity cost of not having used those bars, or the materials, in another more profitable way during the time you were stockpiling. Either way, there’s no actual monetary loss if you liquidate in this fashion.

We are aware that this is a complex trade. Complex trades are not for everyone. Most people want to simply buy low and sell high. However, as with all aspects of finance you are sometimes thrown a curveball. The most successful traders are not those that make only good bets (those people are called either flat out liars or scam artists). No, the most successful traders are those that know how to handle the curveballs as they come.

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Hot Item of the Week- Book of Glyph Mastery

The Book of Glyph Mastery is something of a ‘perfect storm’ in terms of profit potential: It’s new, it is extremely rare (for now), highly desired and can be found by just about anyone. Put another way, these books are extremely high in demand while being severely limited in quantity. When we see that formula, we can’t help but think ‘opportunity’ and here are a few reasons why you should as well.

About the Book- Demand

Books of Glyph Mastery are how scribes potentially learn one of the 40 new glyph recipes in the game. To be clear, for better or worse, these books are the ONLY way to learn one of the 40 new glyphs. They are ‘random world drops’ according to Blizzard so it is not really possible to specifically farm them.

Just to firmly establish the demand level, it will take weeks (if not months) for all of the new glyphs to show up in your server’s economy. Even when the glyphs do become available, they will be in very low supply. Unless you’re very good friends with the particular scribe that can produce a specific glyph, you can expect to pay a ridiculous amount for it. We do, however, expect that the price of the glyphs will decrease over time as demand falls and supply increases. As it stands now, we’ve seen scribes (on several servers) that possess the new glyphs advertising them for as much as 500 gold each. Note, that price is for a single glyph, not a book.

About the Book- Supply

In a sense, you can compare finding one of these books to winning the lottery. Your chances are extremely slim but if you do get a ‘winning ticket’ you can have almost instant wealth (relative to other items anyway). To continue with the lottery comparison, there’s really nothing you can do to work for the winning ticket. Rather, you will either be lucky and find one or you will not. The item cannot be specifically farmed for. There is (at this time) no data that says any one mob will drop the item more than any other. But, again like the lottery, you’ve ‘got to be in it to win it’ meaning that if you’re only doing a few daily non-mob-killing quests or strictly PVP, your chances of finding one are zero.

Use or Sell?

That’s the question isn’t it? What would you do if someone (let’s call him Bob) told you that you had a winning lottery ticket in your pocket but you don’t know how much for? The prize could be as little as $10 or as much as one million dollars. On the other hand, Bob is willing to pay you $10,000 for your ticket right now. The only way to find out the winning ticket’s actual value is to turn it in to the lottery commission, at which point you must accept the amount of the awarded prize and the deal proposed by Bob is off the table. So what would you do? Take the chance and keep the ticket? Or do you take Bob’s deal and go with the sure thing?

This type of predicament is often referred to as utility theory in economics. There’s also a touch of what’s called ‘ethical dilemma’ to this problem. Now, we are not going to delve into the mathematics of this problem here* but we will tell you that to solve it fully you would need all the variables and, in the case of the Book of Glyph Mastery, you simply don’t have them. There is no way to know the true value of the book because it is worth exactly as much as you can sell it for which is simply too subjective to quantify.

What we can tell you is that there are comments on the forums and other sites where people have described selling this item for as little as 400gold and as much as 5,000 gold. We did a little informal polling of guildies and players in trade chat, asking people how much they’d be willing to pay for one of these books. The answers varied wildly. Some people said 500 gold. The highest offer we received was for 6,000G. The most interesting observation from our little informal test was that, on one server, a bidding war erupted in trade chat with scribes (and presumably profiteers) out bidding each other in the /trade channel. We found this interesting because we consistently and publicly reminded the people in the channel that we don’t actually have the item and this didn’t stop them from bidding. The highest bid was ultimately 9.5k gold. Hardly scientific, but now you know what we know.

So What Would We Do?

Put simply, we’d sell it. We are proponents of selling items when they’re costly and purchasing them when they’re inexpensive. Further, we are actively scanning the auction houses on our servers for anyone silly enough to put one up for sale for a low price (think, under 1,000 gold). For what it’s worth, we asked our resident inscription expert if he would purchase one and how much would he pay for it if so. He gave an immediate ‘yes’, said he’d pay up to 3,000 gold, and then proceeded to further convolute the issue by saying it was only so he could “resell it for more than 5,000 to another scribe.”

The Future of this Item

Sometimes you’ve got to move fast to make money. One thing the entire WoWenomics team agrees on here is that the book will suffer from a diminishing value. The later into the lifecycle of patch 3.1 that you find the item, the more likely it will suffer from MUDflation. This one is not something you want to hold in your bank for just the right moment. Find it and sell it, or find it and use it.

Further, we are believers that Blizzard is, perhaps, a little too responsive to massive walls of player QQ. To wit, check out this response from Blizzard and we’re sure you’ll agree with us that this item may be much easier to find in the near future. If you put any faith in that message, you can further see why we advise to sell them now, even if you’re a scribe yourself. Of course, this also means that now is not the time to purchase the book yourself. Wait a while and see if blizzard buffs the drop rate or otherwise changes the mechanics by which it is attained.

*In case you haven’t already guessed from some of our previous posts, we love economic theory and will discuss it ad-nauseam if left unchecked by our friends, spouses and associates. While we’d love to discuss utility theory, moral dilemma and probability statistics with you, we hardly feel this is the forum to do so. Instead, we invite those of you interested in learning more about these theories to do so with the following resources:

  • The mathematical functions behind risk/reward decision-making, told in the form of whether or not to play the lottery.
  • Wikipedia has some good information regarding expected utility and utility functions.
  • They’ve also got a fairly decent page on moral dilemma.
  • Extensive discussion of economic decision-making (PDF) models as applies to utility theory.
  • A thorough introduction of utility theory as applied to economic decision-making (PDF) and portfolio distribution.
  • And finally, from the lighter side of the discussion, we give you the primary reason we have decided not to discuss these issues more in-depth here at WoWenomics: Because we all know that sometimes 2 equals 1.

Somehow we’re guessing the above list of links will be among the least ‘clicked’ links in the history of our site but we invite you to delve further because, well… we’re nerds.

Update: We have recently released a comprehensive graph charting the going rate of the Book of Glyph Mastery. If you are searching for most recent prices, you might want to check here.

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Hot Item of the Week- Guru’s Elixir

We just love this elixir. The benefit of taking it is nice (+20 to all stats for 1 hour) and it sells well but by far our favorite thing about Guru’s Elixir is just how cheap it is to make. It is one of those rare consumables that we recommend making even if you’re not (or not friends with) an elixir master. Yes, it’s that inexpensive… and here’s how you can make a couple of hundred gold a week with them yourself.

Cheap vials-
The trick to making gold with this particular elixir is effectively managing the cost of crafting the item. The base materials are 3 Pygmy Oils and 1 Imbued Vial. First off, be sure that the toon you have purchasing the Imbued Vials is exalted with the vendor that is selling them. This will drop the price of the vials (sold in stacks of 5) from 2 G to 1.6 G. It may not seem like much but again, the goal here is to make the elixir for as little as possible so dropping the cost for a stack of 20 vials from 8 gold to 6.4 gold will make a difference.

Cheap oil-
Pygmy Suckerfish are used to make Pygmy Oil. An alchemist can turn 1 fish into 1-2 oil. We tested with 1,000 suckerfish and produced very near 1,500 oil so the proc rate for the extra oil appears to be approximately 50%. If you have the fishing skill and use it regularly then in all likelihood you’ve probably got more of these than you know what to do with anyway. Otherwise buy them as inexpensively as possible from another player. Typically, both the fish and the oil are so plentiful that there is a deal on one or the other to be found if one looks hard enough. In our experience we’ve found the best value in the raw material-to-finished elixir chain to (usually) be in the form of the oils when purchasing from other players. The Pygmy Oil (in stacks of 20) has the bid value of 2.25 gold automatically filled in when placed for auction in the AH. Two or three times a week we find several stacks with this auto-bid amount filled in and we simply place a bid and wait for them to come to us.

Cheap elixirs-
Thus, assuming you pay 2.25 gold for each stack of oil and 1.6 gold for each stack of five vials your total investment cost to produce 20 Guru’s Elixir is 13.15 gold or, put another way, 6.75 gold (for oil) and 6.4 gold (for vials). Producing 20 elixirs that increase all stats by +20 for less than 15 gold is an excellent way to make money for anyone, even more so for an elixir master alchemist. We regularly sell the stacks of 20 Guru’s Elixir in the auction house for about 33 gold which, while not a huge amount of gold, is a significant return on our initial investment regardless of how we obtained the Pygmy Oil or fish.

Expensive auction-
The only real threat to profit is the fact that listing a stack of 20 Guru’s Elixir in the auction house requires a deposit 6 G so if a stack doesn’t sell it can seriously hurt your profits. That said, the opportunistic WoW trader will use that to their advantage and either sell the elixirs via /trade chat or use the high deposit rate to scare off competitors.

Play with it a bit yourself and see if you can’t become the guru of Guru’s Elixirs on your server.

Bonus: If you’ve got extra, try drinking 8-10 Pygmy Oil and go chase the white rabbit.

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Northrend Economic Assessment- Part Two

This is the second part of our two-part assessment of the state of the Northrend economy. The first part used financial analytics to study patterns in the market and chart the direction of several Northrend goods. Today we will take a look at where we see prices going in the near future- specifically delving into the impact of the release of patch 3.1 on Northrend item prices. We will also be making a few buy and sell recommendations based on both our testing data as well as our prior experience with the financial impact of the release of major content patches.

Part Two of Two-
Profiting From Patch 3.1

As indicated by our previous study on the Northrend economy in part one of this analysis, we generally feel that prices of most goods overall will continue to decline over time. This is particularly true as we feel the effects of mudflation on older items. The exceptions to this will be items that have new or additional uses post-patch 3.1 implementation.

Blizzard has called patch 3.1 their “biggest content patch ever” and that just might be true given the introduction of new world event content, new crafting profession items, new badges (and badge gear), a new raid instance and more. As such, we see the potential for impact on the current WoW economy to be huge. While we cannot possibly cover every incoming change and its resulting impact on the economy we have selected a few items that we predict will experience significant changes in relevance and thus, price changes within the general economy. We’ve categorized our recommendations into the following two straightforward categories:

Buy– Items we see as gaining value post patch 3.1
Sell– Items we see as losing value post patch 3.1

Bear in mind that some of these items will only be changing in value for the first few weeks after the patch so they may not all stay up or down in price and you should buy or sell accordingly within that time frame if you wish to maximize profit. And, as usual with financial advice real world or not, we advise you approach with caution and the understanding that YMMV. Also keep in mind that all of this speculation is based on information that has not yet made it to the live realms and is thus subject to change.

So, without further adieu, our recommendations:

Buy- Items we see as gaining in value

Borean Man O’ War– will finally start to have some value but we assume you knew this already.

Eternal Earth– Take a look at the crafted items list and it is easy to see why Eternal Earth will be in high demand. Every one of the crafted items that calls for it as a component doesn’t just require one or two but a full stack of 20! This should significantly increase the value of Eternal Earth to such an extent that the market for this eternal item should stay elevated until the next expansion or at least the next significant content patch. Miners rejoice… everyone else buy them now while they’re still cheap.

Eternal Fire and Eternal Shadow– We predict a modest increase in price for these two eternals as they are components for both Titansteel and some of the high-end cloth that we also forecast increases in price for. The percentage increase in price will probably not be as high as the increase we predict for Eternal Earth as the Earths have both this factor and the one mentioned above but we do recommend that you keep an eye on the prices of these key components.

Gems– With new gear comes new markets for gems. Of particular value will be the new gems cuts released in the patch. As most of the new gear is higher-end we would expect rare gems to increase in value more than uncommon gem cuts since most players that have the best gear will want to gem it with the best cuts available.

Glyphs– Glyphs should sell very well in the first few days of the content patch with the introduction of the dual spec system. It has been reported that by paying for a second specialization you will get a second tab for additional glyphs that will more appropriately fit your secondary spec. Thus, expect a spike in demand initially for new glyphs. Demand should subside a few weeks after the patch goes live however so get in on the glyph rush fast.

High-end ClothEbonweave, Moonshroud and Spellweave should all be increasing in value to reflect the high amount of these items required to craft some of the newer tailoring items.

Icy Dragonscale (and possibly Arctic Fur)- New leatherworking crafted items will require both of these in quantity. Note that we don’t think these items will increase in price by a huge margin as they are only used by leatherworkers (as opposed to the materials required to craft high-end metals or cloth). However, expecting a moderate increase- at least initially- would be reasonable.

Mana Regeneration Items– Gems, crafted items, and particularly mana regen food should increase in value as players adapt to newly nerfed mana regeneration mechanics. This increase in price (again, particularly in food items) may take a little while after the patch to occur as it might take some casters a few runs to realize that they are running out of mana sooner than what they’ve become accustomed to.

Popular Enchantments as well as Enchanting Materials– Similar to gems, new gear means new enchantments. Enchanters would do well to stock up on materials now before the cost increases. Opportunists may wish to hold on to any mats they have now and sell them after 3.1 goes live. We recommend that profit-minded enchanters not only stock up on mats but also have a few vellums crafted of the more popular enchants and ready for posting in the AH. Bear in mind, however, that it may take some time for people to attain new gear so there may be a slight delay between when the patch is released and when these items go up in price unlike many of the other crafting items listed here.

Relic of Ulduar– This one is another one that we can kind of see going either way. On the one hand there will be more demand for the consumables that are only purchasable with these relics as well as an increased interest in their related zone and faction. On the other hand more people interested in both The Storm Peaks and Sons of Hodir means increased supply. Our bet is that, at least initially, these relics will go up in price.

Titansteel Bars– Titansteel Bars should show an increase in price for reasons similar to those we mentioned for the high end cloth.

WotLK Flasks– Flasks from the current expansion should be going up in value as raiders look to anything that may give them an edge in the new raid instance. Of particular note are the Flask of Stoneblood, which is receiving a buff in 3.1, and Flask of Mojo for reasons of mana regen as mentioned above.

WotLK Herbs– More glyphs and increased interest in flasks should drive up the price of all Wrath herbs. These prices will normalize a few weeks into the content but initially we forecast an increase in prices of herbs across the board. Of particular interest should be Frost Lotus which has recently had its drop rate nerfed somewhat tightening supply.

Sell- Items we see as losing value

BoE Valor Bracers– A good amount of profit-minded raiders have made some serious gold turning in their Emblems of Valor for various bracers that were recently changed from bind-on-pickup to bind-on-equip. It was a fun run but we feel that the value of these BoE bracers will be decreasing significantly (possibly selling for half of what they do now at best) because of the following reasons:
1) There will be more new gear available making these obsolete.
2) Emblems of Valor will be the currency in 10-man Ulduar, which will increase the availability of the bracers to the general community.
3) New gold sinks are being introduced to the game meaning that people may be less likely to spend a couple of thousand gold on a single outdated item.

Dragonfin Angelfish– We are going to go out on a limb and predict a drop in price on this particularly popular fish. Currently it is the only item that can be cooked into +Strength food, which is viewed by some as an error on Blizzard’s part. We agree and think this will be corrected with the release of 3.1. If there are more options out there for the strength food buff then demand for the currently (mostly overpriced) Dragonfin will drop, decreasing price. Of course, if they don’t introduce a new source material for strength food you can expect the opposite and this item will actually increase in price. Since we’re betting on the former, we are currently selling off our reserves of Dragonfin.

Frozen Orbs– In our research we haven’t found a single new crafted item that directly calls for the use of Frozen Orbs. Sure, these items will still be useful to those players crafting the older items but overall we expect that Runed Orbs will largely replace these orbs within the community at large. We are aware that many players, and particularly guilds, have been stockpiling these orbs for crafting purposes but we suggest that you sell them off now while they still hold value. Even if you’re concerned that you might need them in the future we suggest that you sell them now for maxim profit and re-purchase them later when they drop in price. People will still be running heroics so they’ll still be attained; we’ll just see less demand for them. Less demand equals less profit. Move accordingly.

Mycah’s Botanical Bag– This BoE herbing bag is being replaced by a new Kalu’ak reputation-based pattern that awards an additional four slots. Many savvy tailors have continued to crank out Botanical Bags but with the integration of a new version we see the old one as losing value significantly. Sell them now for maximum profit.

This concludes our speculation for price movements of some of the Northrend items we feel will be most impacted by the release of WoW patch 3.1. We thank you for taking the time to read our predictions and we invite you to share your own predictions in the comments section. We will be monitoring these items closely in the weeks following the release of 3.1 and we will share the results of our post-patch testing a few weeks after the patch is released.

If you found this post informative you may also wish to read WoW Insider’s patch 3.1 livelihood assessment or their comprehensive round-up of all things 3.1.

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